The fascist dystopia that will be the post-IR Iran
The
writing is on the wall: Over the next decade, especially after Ayatollah
Khamenei dies, Iran
will transition from an Islamic Republic to an authoritarian, uber-nationalist,
rightwing semi-secular state that will revive Aryanism as state ideology and which
will enshrine Arab-hatred as its foreign policy. This future Iran will align with Israel
and Russia.
Evidence for the coming naziesque Iranian dystopia is already present on the
ground throughout the length and breadth of the country in the sentiments of
both urban and rural populations as the brand of Islamism ushered in by
Ayatollah Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution of 1979 finds itself more and
more discredited in the eyes of the population.
The
neoliberal capitalist economic edifice for this post-IR Aryanist Iran is already
in place. Sans oil, and given that Iran is mineral rich, this future Iranian
society will even be allowed to become a major player in atomic energy and
other alternatives to fossil fuels on the global market.
As
I have said in the past, I do not believe anymore that the Islamic Revolution
of 1979 was an actual Revolution. Rather it appears that it was a coup d’etat
engineered by competing elements to the Pahlavis and their cronies in the
Iranian deep state of the time, together with those forces Kermit Roosevelt had
originally organized in 1953 against Mossadegh, who used Khomeini and Islam to
displace the Pahlavis. The replacement of the Islamic Republic will follow a
similar trajectory as the fall of the Shah’s regime but I do not anticipate
that it will follow the logic of the same form of violent upheaval that
occurred in 1978-9.
Already
in Iran there exist side by side to the official system of the Islamic Republic
parallel societies of exorbitant wealth, privilege and opulence, many of which
simultaneously have deep links to the system, but who scoff and ridicule the
ideology of the IRI and the whole system itself: a system these people believe
they are above. These are either former officials or their children who have
come into financial power and influence independently of the system -- although
they initially piggy-backed on the back of the system in order to get there.
Representatives of these parallel societies already exhibit a very conspicuous
ultra-nationalist ideology that features Aryanist ultra-nationalism,
Arab-hatred and a deep abiding Islamophobia.
This
state of affairs is dangerous for Iran (esp. its minorities), not to
mention the rest of the region, and is one that should be resisted. However, I
do not see how it can effectively be resisted anymore either. Cumulatively,
events of the past few years – and esp. the past six months – have irreparably
weakened the Islamic Republic of Iran and its remaining diehard elite with
their multitude of sycophants. War, years of corruption and mismanagement,
political repression, international sanctions and a faltering economy, the
massive and ever-expanding chasm between haves and have nots, and, above all,
the coronavirus has done the rest. Clearly, and whatever the spin put out by
official sources, the sentiment of the majority of the Iranian population is no
longer with its system.
While
in 2009 I would have celebrated any anticipation of the imminent collapse of
the Islamic Republic, today I do not for obvious reasons, because if the
Islamic Republic is to go, I do not look at an authoritarian, Islamophobic
Aryanist Iranian nation as the viable alternative to the Islamic Republic.
Rather such a scenario that could possibly unfold is a descent into the grips
of a false dialectic while opening Iran up to (other than the
Anglo-European West) two of its real enemies: Zionism and Neo-Tsarism. A
Mossadeghist democratic socialist model would be the real alternative but that
is not where certain powers are going to take it.
